Analysis: Texas Voter Preferences by Political District

by Ross RamseyThe Texas TribuneOct. 2, 2015

As the presidential political season heats up in Texas, here’s a look — based on the Texas results in the past two general elections for president — at how the state’s congressional and statehouse districts stack up for the candidates from both parties. Remember what they say about stock prices while you’re browsing this: Past results do not indicate future results, but it’s a place to start. It will come as no surprise that most of those political districts were created to keep one party or the other one out of business.

The numbers represent the average results for Republican and Democratic candidates in contested statewide races during the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012. The margin is the difference between those two averages, shown for the state overall and then for each political district. You can see that Republican legislators ordinarily win when their ticket is winning in the the district — but not always.

First up: Congress, where the districts range in strength from the most Republican — the 13th, where the incumbent is Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon — to the most Democratic — the 30th, where Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, holds sway. Texas has only one true swing district that could go either to a Republican or a Democrat, depending on the mood of voters: That’s the 23rd Congressional District, where freshman Will Hurd, R-San Antonio, is the incumbent. Click on any of the column headers to sort the results.

2008/2012 Statewide Election Results, by Congressional District
Source: Calculated from Texas Legislative Council data
DISTRICT INCUMBENT PARTY GOP AVG DEM AVG MARGIN
13 Thornberry R 74.7 22.3 R 52.4
11 Conaway R 73.9 23.0 R 51.0
8 Brady R 72.8 24.6 R 48.2
19 Neugebauer R 69.7 27.3 R 42.4
4 Ratcliffe R 66.9 30.3 R 36.6
1 Gohmert R 66.8 31.0 R 35.8
36 Babin R 66.4 31.0 R 35.4
26 Burgess R 65.1 31.4 R 33.7
12 Granger R 63.5 33.4 R 30.1
3 Johnson, S. R 62.9 33.9 R 29.0
2 Poe R 61.8 35.5 R 26.3
22 Olson R 60.4 37.3 R 23.0
5 Hensarling R 60.1 37.2 R 22.9
7 Culberson R 59.5 38.0 R 21.5
24 Marchant R 59.1 37.6 R 21.5
21 Smith R 57.4 38.1 R 19.2
31 Carter R 56.5 38.9 R 17.6
17 Flores R 56.8 39.6 R 17.2
25 Williams R 56.1 39.5 R 16.6
10 McCaul R 56.3 40.0 R 16.3
32 Sessions R 56.0 40.9 R 15.1
27 Farenthold R 55.9 41.0 R 14.8
6 Barton R 55.7 41.5 R 14.3
0 STATEWIDE 54.4 42.6 R 11.7
14 Weber R 54.6 42.9 R 11.7
23 Hurd R 48.0 49.0 D 1.1
15 Hinojosa D 39.4 58.0 D 18.5
20 Castro D 38.5 58.4 D 20.0
28 Cuellar D 37.2 59.7 D 22.5
34 Vela D 36.0 60.9 D 24.9
35 Doggett D 33.5 62.3 D 28.8
16 O’Rourke D 33.0 63.5 D 30.6
29 Green, G. D 31.7 66.2 D 34.5
33 Veasey D 27.4 70.3 D 43.0
18 Jackson Lee D 22.3 75.8 D 53.5
9 Green, A. D 21.8 76.6 D 54.7
30 Johnson, E.B. D 20.0 78.2 D 58.1

The Senate’s most Democratic district is the 13th, where Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, is the incumbent. The 31st Senate District is on the other end of the spectrum; Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, has the most Republican district in that body. State Sen. Konni Burton, R-Colleyville, has the closest thing to a swing seat. It was Democrat Wendy Davis‘ post until the 2014 elections.

2008/2012 Statewide Election Results, by Texas Senate District
Source: Calculated from Texas Legislative Council data
DISTRICT INCUMBENT PARTY GOP AVG DEM AVG MARGIN
19 Uresti D 41.5 55.5 D 14.1
20 Hinojosa D 39.7 57.5 D 17.8
15 Whitmire D 38.6 59.0 D 20.4
21 Zaffirini D 37.2 59.0 D 21.8
14 Watson D 34.9 59.1 D 24.2
26 Menendez D 35.6 61.2 D 25.6
29 Rodriguez D 31.8 64.7 D 32.9
6 Garcia D 31.1 66.8 D 35.8
27 Lucio D 29.5 67.5 D 38.0
23 West D 18.5 79.7 D 61.2
13 Ellis D 15.8 82.7 D 66.9
0 STATEWIDE 54.4 42.6 R 11.7
31 Seliger R 75.7 21.3 R 54.4
30 Estes R 70.2 26.6 R 43.6
28 Perry R 68.9 27.9 R 41.1
3 Nichols R 67.7 29.7 R 37.9
24 Fraser R 66.4 30.2 R 36.2
1 Eltife R 66.5 31.2 R 35.2
4 Creighton R 66.4 31.3 R 35.1
7 Bettencourt R 65.9 31.9 R 34.0
12 Nelson R 63.8 32.9 R 30.9
22 Birdwell R 63.4 33.7 R 29.7
18 Kolkhorst R 63.2 34.5 R 28.7
25 Campbell R 62.1 34.2 R 27.9
11 Taylor, L. R 61.3 35.9 R 25.4
8 Taylor, V. R 60.7 36.1 R 24.5
5 Schwertner R 59.6 36.0 R 23.5
2 Hall R 59.2 37.9 R 21.2
17 Huffman R 58.3 39.2 R 19.1
9 Hancock R 57.2 39.6 R 17.7
16 Huffines R 56.2 40.8 R 15.4
10 Burton R 51.8 45.7 R 6.1

Finally, the Texas House, with its 150 seats, makes for a very big chart — and more varied and competitive districts. As with the state’s senators and its federal representatives, most state House members face more political hazards in their own primaries than in the general election, but there are some House districts — almost a dozen — where candidates from both parties stand a reasonable chance of success.

2008/2012 Statewide Election Results, by Texas House District
Source: Calculated from Texas Legislative Council data
District INCUMBENT PARTY GOP AVG DEM AVG MARGIN
86 Smithee R 79.1 18.0 R 61.1
61 King, P. R 76.5 20.5 R 55.9
82 Craddick R 76.4 20.7 R 55.7
16 Metcalf R 76.4 21.3 R 55.1
60 Keffer R 75.9 21.0 R 54.9
73 Miller, D. R 74.9 21.5 R 53.4
88 King, K. R 75.1 22.2 R 52.9
15 Keough R 74.5 22.7 R 51.8
83 Burrows R 73.8 23.4 R 50.4
130 Fletcher R 74.0 23.7 R 50.3
68 Springer R 73.4 23.9 R 49.5
98 Capriglione R 72.7 24.2 R 48.4
87 Price R 72.3 24.5 R 47.9
3 Bell Jr. R 72.6 25.2 R 47.3
53 Murr R 71.9 24.8 R 47.1
81 Landgraf R 71.2 25.8 R 45.4
58 Burns R 71.0 25.7 R 45.3
71 King, S. R 70.7 26.2 R 44.5
72 Darby R 70.1 26.5 R 43.7
59 Sheffield R 70.1 26.6 R 43.5
2 Flynn R 70.1 26.9 R 43.2
63 Parker R 69.9 26.8 R 43.1
33 Turner, Scott R 69.6 27.5 R 42.1
13 Schubert R 69.5 28.1 R 41.4
69 Frank R 68.6 28.4 R 40.1
10 Wray R 68.4 28.4 R 40.0
24 Bonnen, G. R 68.5 28.6 R 39.9
5 Hughes R 68.4 29.1 R 39.3
4 Spitzer R 67.9 29.5 R 38.4
128 Smith R 68.1 29.8 R 38.3
7 Simpson R 68.0 29.9 R 38.0
20 Farney R 67.0 29.0 R 38.0
70 Sanford R 67.4 29.6 R 37.7
6 Schaefer R 67.7 30.1 R 37.6
19 White, J. R 67.4 29.9 R 37.5
62 Phillips R 67.2 29.8 R 37.4
127 Huberty R 67.5 30.2 R 37.3
133 Murphy R 67.4 30.3 R 37.1
150 Riddle R 66.9 30.8 R 36.1
8 Cook R 66.7 30.7 R 36.0
122 Larson R 66.5 30.5 R 36.0
11 Clardy R 66.7 30.9 R 35.8
56 Anderson, C. R 65.8 31.7 R 34.1
21 Phelan R 65.7 31.7 R 34.0
106 Fallon R 65.0 31.9 R 33.1
57 Ashby R 65.3 32.3 R 33.0
89 Laubenberg R 64.7 31.9 R 32.8
91 Klick R 64.7 32.0 R 32.8
44 Kuempel R 64.4 32.4 R 32.0
18 Otto R 64.2 32.8 R 31.4
9 Paddie R 64.4 33.3 R 31.1
99 Geren R 63.8 32.8 R 31.0
25 Bonnen, D. R 63.7 33.1 R 30.6
30 Morrison R 63.8 33.4 R 30.5
1 VanDeaver R 63.7 33.7 R 30.0
84 Frullo R 62.5 34.0 R 28.5
28 Zerwas R 62.8 35.3 R 27.5
129 Paul R 62.2 35.0 R 27.1
26 Miller, R. R 62.2 35.6 R 26.6
14 Raney R 60.6 35.2 R 25.5
126 Harless R 61.4 36.4 R 25.0
29 Thompson, E. R 61.0 36.3 R 24.7
55 White, M. R 60.7 36.0 R 24.7
66 Shaheen R 60.6 36.4 R 24.1
67 Leach R 60.1 36.4 R 23.7
121 Straus R 59.4 37.2 R 22.2
92 Stickland R 59.0 37.6 R 21.5
94 Tinderholt R 58.9 37.9 R 21.0
135 Elkins R 59.1 38.7 R 20.4
138 Bohac R 58.7 38.8 R 20.0
132 Schofield R 58.6 39.1 R 19.6
64 Crownover R 57.6 38.0 R 19.5
93 Krause R 58.0 38.8 R 19.1
108 Meyer R 57.8 38.8 R 19.0
97 Goldman R 57.9 39.2 R 18.7
12 Kacal R 57.1 40.4 R 16.7
47 Workman R 55.7 39.1 R 16.7
65 Simmons R 56.6 40.1 R 16.5
96 Zedler R 56.9 40.7 R 16.3
85 Stephenson R 56.9 41.2 R 15.7
134 Davis, S. R 55.5 41.5 R 14.0
115 Rinaldi R 55.1 41.6 R 13.5
136 Dale R 53.1 40.7 R 12.3
17 Cyrier R 53.9 41.8 R 12.1
0 STATEWIDE 54.4 42.6 R 11.7
32 Hunter R 53.9 42.4 R 11.5
114 Villalba R 54.4 42.9 R 11.5
112 Button R 54.2 42.9 R 11.3
52 Gonzales R 52.6 42.3 R 10.2
45 Isaac R 51.9 42.8 R 9.1
102 Koop R 52.6 44.1 R 8.5
113 Burkett R 51.6 45.8 R 5.8
54 Aycock R 51.3 45.7 R 5.6
105 Anderson, R. R 50.8 46.0 R 4.8
107 Sheets R 50.9 46.4 R 4.5
23 Faircloth R 48.8 48.5 R 0.3
43 Lozano R 47.5 49.7 D 2.2
144 Peña R 45.6 51.9 D 6.3
117 Galindo R 45.1 52.0 D 6.8
78 Moody D 42.5 53.7 D 11.2
34 Herrero D 41.6 55.6 D 14.0
118 Farias D 40.6 56.5 D 15.9
149 Vo D 40.6 57.3 D 16.7
48 Howard D 38.7 55.6 D 16.9
41 Guerra D 40.1 57.3 D 17.2
148 Farrar D 39.4 57.0 D 17.5
50 Israel D 38.0 56.2 D 18.2
74 Nevárez D 38.5 57.7 D 19.2
125 Rodriguez, J. D 38.3 58.7 D 20.4
116 Martinez Fischer D 36.9 59.6 D 22.7
145 Alvarado D 37.1 60.2 D 23.1
119 Gutierrez D 37.0 60.1 D 23.1
124 Minjares D 36.8 60.1 D 23.2
123 Bernal D 36.4 59.9 D 23.5
101 Turner, C. D 35.5 62.1 D 26.6
137 Wu D 35.2 62.0 D 26.8
120 McClendon D 34.1 63.1 D 29.0
31 Guillen D 33.9 63.7 D 29.8
77 Marquez D 32.8 63.2 D 30.5
79 Pickett D 32.6 64.1 D 31.5
35 Longoria D 32.4 64.8 D 32.4
38 Lucio III D 31.4 65.0 D 33.6
22 Deshotel D 31.9 66.8 D 34.9
103 Anchia D 29.5 67.2 D 37.7
143 Hernandez Luna D 29.8 68.3 D 38.4
80 King, T. D 29.2 67.8 D 38.6
37 Oliveira D 28.7 67.4 D 38.7
27 Reynolds D 29.8 68.7 D 38.9
140 Walle D 28.2 70.1 D 41.9
49 Naishtat D 24.8 68.0 D 43.2
104 Alonzo D 26.6 70.8 D 44.3
75 González D 24.7 72.3 D 47.6
90 Romero Jr. D 24.5 73.5 D 49.0
39 Martinez D 24.2 73.5 D 49.3
36 Muñoz Jr. D 23.9 74.0 D 50.1
42 Raymond D 22.5 74.0 D 51.5
139 Turner, Sylvester. D 23.2 75.2 D 52.1
111 Davis, Y. D 22.8 75.6 D 52.8
95 Collier D 22.6 75.7 D 53.0
40 Canales D 21.9 75.7 D 53.9
46 Dukes D 20.5 74.5 D 54.0
76 Blanco D 21.3 75.7 D 54.4
100 Johnson D 21.2 76.5 D 55.3
142 Dutton Jr. D 20.8 77.9 D 57.1
146 Miles D 20.5 77.7 D 57.1
147 Coleman D 19.3 78.2 D 58.9
51 Rodriguez, E. D 17.0 76.7 D 59.7
109 Giddings D 18.5 80.0 D 61.4
131 Allen D 16.4 82.2 D 65.8
141 Thompson, S. D 12.9 86.0 D 73.1
110 Rose D 10.9 87.7 D 76.8

The Texas Tribune is a nonpartisan, nonprofit media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them – about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Source: The Texas Tribune

Image: Christian Senger 

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune

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